EconoData
Summaries of reports and articles by international analysts and writers on political economy and conflict.
Professor Julian Cooper · SIPRI · 14 October 2026
Russia’s draft federal budget for 2027–2029 indicates that military spending remains a priority in the country’s fiscal policy, despite limited economic growth and a budget deficit. According to the draft, the Russian economy will experience gradual growth and declining inflation in the coming years, while the budget will remain less dependent on oil and gas revenues; increased tax revenues, particularly value-added tax, will offset some of the decline in oil revenues. However, estimates suggest that Russia’s actual military spending in 2026 could reach approximately 17 trillion rubles—far above the approved budget. A change in the funding source for compensation to wounded service members and the families of military personnel killed in the war in Ukraine has also affected how military expenditure is recorded and classified in the budget. Overall, the report shows that an accurate assessment of Russian military spending must look beyond the “National Defence” budget line and take other sections—especially social policy and national security—into account.